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ARNC: Apollo Out In Front, Politicians Make Noise

Worth Watching: 03 Dec 2018, 2:16 PM ET - ARNC (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): After months of speculation, Apollo has purportedly emerged as the lead bidder among other private equity firms for ARNC, according to Bloomberg. This rumor comes on the heels of Elliott Management reportedly stepping in to as ..
Focused

ARNC: Elliott Assuming Liability to Facilitate LBO

Worth Watching: 29 Nov 2018, 1:52 PM ET - ARNC (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): Elliott Management has reportedly stepped in to assume potential liabilities weighing on the sale process for ARNC, according to Reuters. The news report noted that Elliott has offered to take on ARNC's cladding business and a ..
Focused

Arconic: LBO by Mid-Dec?

Worth Watching: 19 Nov 2018, 1:33 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+) could announce an LBO deal by mid-December, according to CNBC. The PE firms have wavered on making binding offers for ARNC given their concerns over contingent liabilities associated with the Grenfell Tower fire. It is inter ..
Focused

Arconic: PE Firms Mull Over Grenfell Liabilities

Worth Watching: 15 Nov 2018, 9:47 AM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+) is providing more time to the PE firms to mull over and get comfortable with the contingent liabilities associated with the Grenfell Tower fire, according to the NY Post. Elliott Management, which owns 11% of ARNC, is report ..
Focused

Arconic: Grenfell Fire Liabilities Derailing LBO

Worth Watching: 06 Nov 2018, 12:07 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-): According to the NY Post, the oft-rumored takeover of ARNC by Apollo could be derailed by contingent liabilities associated with the Grenfell Towers fire in 2017 (see: ARNC: Flammable Panels Supplier to Grenfell Towers 06-26-17 ..
Focused

ARNC 3Q18: Postponing Strategic Review for LBO?

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2018, 10:08 PM ET - ARNC postponed the reveal of its strategic & portfolio review, leading us to believe that the company may be buying time as it entertains a potential LBO offer that has been heavily speculated. 
Focused

Arconic: Apollo LBO Rumors

HY Note: 23 Oct 2018, 8:39 PM ET - We take a closer look at the Arconic LBO rumors and the change of control language in the bonds. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 
Focused

Arconic: LBO Rumors Continue

Worth Watching: 09 Oct 2018, 3:37 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): LBO rumors continue to swirl. According to Reuters, Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex, and Canada Pension have made a joint bid to acquire ARNC. The report also noted that the PE consortium is competing with Apollo in the bidding p ..
Focused

Arconic: $300 mn Sale of Texas Rolling Mill

Worth Watching: 03 Oct 2018, 10:18 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+) agreed to sell its Texarkana, Texas rolling mill to a US subsidiary of Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co., which is a Taiwanese aluminum and stainless steel distributor. ARNC will receive $300 mn on closing, expected in 4Q18, and co ..

FCX: Landmark Grasberg Deal Signing

Worth Watching: 30 Sep 2018, 10:35 PM ET - FCX (Ba2/BB) and Rio Tinto signed a binding agreement to sell their stakes in the Grasberg mine to PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (Inalum). The terms are roughly in-line with what was reported in July when the parties signed a nonbinding agreement ( ..
Focused

ARNC 2Q18: No Word on LBO Rumor

Earnings Note: 31 Jul 2018, 3:35 PM ET - We examine ARNC's 2Q18 results and take a look at the 2028s which has declined on the back of the LBO rumor. 
Focused

Arconic: Apollo LBO Rumors

Worth Watching: 16 Jul 2018, 9:13 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+) is subject of takeover interest from PE firms, including Apollo, according to a Wall Street Journal report. It appears the rumors are mere speculation at this point given the lack of details in the article. The WSJ also note ..

Coal Producers: Exposure to Potential Retirements

Sector Analysis: 28 Jun 2018, 5:16 AM ET - As part of our continued coverage of coal producer exposure to plant retirements, we have analyzed coal plant data to determine which basins and coal producers have the greatest exposure to unplanned, but at risk, coal plant retirements.  
Focused

ARNC 1Q18: Slashes Guidance, Uncertainty Rises

Earnings Note: 01 May 2018, 5:40 AM ET - Downward revision of FY18 guidance didn't sit well with investors and sent the bonds down a point and the stock tumbling down 20% today.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.
Focused

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Metals: U.S. Protectionism Comes to a Head

Sector Analysis: 19 Feb 2018, 11:06 PM ET - Our thoughts on the Commerce Department's proposed Section 232 tariffs/quotas on steel and aluminum imports and the implications on various industries. 
Focused

ARNC 4Q17: New CEO Brings Uncertainty

Earnings Note: 05 Feb 2018, 9:57 PM ET - We examine the company's 4Q17 results and discuss our initial thoughts on the new CEO. 

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