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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.
Focused

Aramark: Takes a Beating on Investor Day

HY Note: 12 Dec 2018, 5:50 AM ET - The equity market was very unkind to Aramark given the mix of comments and guidance on Investor Day as 2019-2021 growth targets underwhelmed.  ARMK bonds have drifted wider with the market but is not showing selling nerves. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Aramark: Delivers on Deleveraging

Earnings Note: 13 Nov 2018, 8:15 PM ET - ARMK delivered solid 4Q18 results and cash flow which resulted in lower net leverage than expected. The company will provide an updated company outlook at its upcoming Investor Day December 11th.  

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.
Focused

Aramark: Divesting Healthcare Technologies Unit

Worth Watching: 17 Sep 2018, 1:25 PM ET - Aramark announced plans to sell its Healthcare Technologies unit to TRIMEDX for $300 mn.  Within the Aramark core portfolio of food and facilities services and uniforms, the Healthcare Technologies business was a more tech-centric business line ..

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.
Focused

Aramark: Hitting its Stride

Earnings Note: 07 Aug 2018, 5:26 PM ET - Underlying trends for ARMK remain encouraging with some new business wins and a solid base of business  leading to improved organic growth.  YTD organic growth of +3.6% is within the company's long-term stated range of +3% to +5%.  

Car Rental: Crossroads or Figure 8?

Sector Outlook: 06 Aug 2018, 11:13 AM ET - We frame key issues ahead of Hertz/Avis earnings week. Will 2018 provide a pause to get more critical execution risks addressed ahead of secular/cyclical pressure ahead? Do they get a 1-year reprieve on residual risk surprises?

Consumer/Pharma: Cross-Sector Rel Val Analysis

Sector Analysis: 19 Jul 2018, 4:27 AM ET - In this report, we juxtapose OAS and leverage levels across on-the-run non-cyclical credits in the F&B and Pharma space. M&A has elevated leverage for several names, so we aim to help investors find the best spread while managing risk.

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