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Alcoa

Alcoa is one of the world's largest bauxite, alumina and primary aluminum producers. In addition, the company produces some downstream rolled products, cast products, and energy. In November 2016, the legacy Alcoa Inc. completed its separation into two independent, publicly listed companies: Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Arconic Inc. (ARNC). Effective 1Q17, AA reorganized internally its aluminum smelting, casting, and rolling businesses, along with the majority of the energy business, into a new Aluminum business unit. The existing Bauxite and Alumina segments and the new Aluminum segment represent AA's operating and reportable segments. Aluminum - 57% of 2017 sales and 36% of 2017 EBITDA Alumina - 34% of 2017 sales and 48% of 2017 EBITDA Bauxite - 9% of 2017 sales and 16% of 2017 EBITDA (19 Nov 2018)

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Transcript: 2018 IG & Crossover Conf-Basics Panel

Transcript: 11 Dec 2018, 5:51 AM ET - We present a transcript of the Basic Industries Panel discussion given at the CreditSights Investment Grade & Crossover conference on December 4, 2018.
Focused

AA 3Q18: Strong EBITDA Beat

Earnings Note: 17 Oct 2018, 11:40 PM ET - AA handily beats consensus EBITDA estimates and starts to shift towards shareholder rewards, announcing a modest $200 mn share buyback program.

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Arconic: LBO Rumors Continue

Worth Watching: 09 Oct 2018, 3:37 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): LBO rumors continue to swirl. According to Reuters, Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex, and Canada Pension have made a joint bid to acquire ARNC. The report also noted that the PE consortium is competing with Apollo in the bidding p ..

FCX: Landmark Grasberg Deal Signing

Worth Watching: 30 Sep 2018, 10:35 PM ET - FCX (Ba2/BB) and Rio Tinto signed a binding agreement to sell their stakes in the Grasberg mine to PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (Inalum). The terms are roughly in-line with what was reported in July when the parties signed a nonbinding agreement ( ..
Focused

AA 2Q18: Lowers EBITDA Guidance

Earnings Note: 19 Jul 2018, 12:00 AM ET - We kick off earnings season with Alcoa and review the company's results for 2Q18.

Coal Producers: Exposure to Potential Retirements

Sector Analysis: 28 Jun 2018, 5:16 AM ET - As part of our continued coverage of coal producer exposure to plant retirements, we have analyzed coal plant data to determine which basins and coal producers have the greatest exposure to unplanned, but at risk, coal plant retirements.  
Focused

Alcoa: Buy the 10NC5 at or over 6%

Worth Watching: 14 May 2018, 1:12 PM ET - Alcoa is a high-quality BB-rated aluminum company that is launching a $500 mn 10NC5 bond offering today. The new AA bonds are rated Ba1/BB+/BB+, with both Moody's and S&P upgrading AA's credit rating by one-notch today on the heels of the bond off ..
Focused

AA 1Q18: Raises EBITDA Guidance

Earnings Note: 18 Apr 2018, 11:28 PM ET - AA is in a great position to benefit from commodity prices that have risen on the back of Section 232 tariffs and Russian sanctions.
Focused

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Metals: U.S. Protectionism Comes to a Head

Sector Analysis: 19 Feb 2018, 11:06 PM ET - Our thoughts on the Commerce Department's proposed Section 232 tariffs/quotas on steel and aluminum imports and the implications on various industries. 

CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: EVs, Autos and Metals

Worth Watching: 29 Jan 2018, 6:04 PM ET - CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: The mega trend around vehicle electrification is set to meaningfully impact a number of sectors, changing the landscape in a disruptive fashion that will make for significant divergence between the winners and losers. Who wil ..

Metals: Electric Vehicle Revolution

Sector Analysis: 29 Jan 2018, 2:49 PM ET - We discuss the EV market and more specifically EV batteries, supply/demand profiles of the commodities that are found within an EV battery, and our coverage companies that could stand to benefit and lose from the EV revolution. 

Chemicals 2018 Outlook (Part 5): Chlor-Alkali

Sector Outlook: 25 Jan 2018, 10:35 PM ET - With investment in chlor-alkali capacity effectively non-existent and positive manufacturing and construction trends around the globe, we expect operating rates around the world to rise in the medium term. 
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AA: Solid 4Q17, But EBITDA Misses

Earnings Note: 17 Jan 2018, 11:19 PM ET - We review AA's 4Q17 results and FY18 outlook.

Metals 2018 Outlook: Valuations Over Fundamentals

Sector Outlook: 15 Jan 2018, 9:19 PM ET - We analyze the broad trends within the metals & mining sector, delve into sub-sector developments, and then examine name-specific recommendations.

Metals: Steel Section 232 Finally in Trump's Hands

Worth Watching: 12 Jan 2018, 12:06 PM ET - Metals: Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross has finally delivered his much-anticipated Section 232 report on the impact of steel imports on U.S. national security to President Trump on Thursday, January 11th. The Commerce Department noted th ..
Focused

Alcoa: S&P Upgrades to BB

Worth Watching: 06 Dec 2017, 9:02 PM ET - Alcoa (Ba2/BB): S&P upgraded AA's senior unsecured rating by one notch to BB from BB-, which follows Moody's Upgrade to Ba2 in September. Correspondingly, S&P upgraded the senior secured credit facility by one notch to BBB- from BB+. According to ..

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