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AK Steel

AKS primarily serves the specialty market, with a portfolio that includes stainless, coated, cold-rolled, tubular and electrical steels. Prices are typically negotiated in long-term contracts with pass-throughs for inputs such as nickel and zinc. In 2017, 70% of flat-rolled shipments were sold on contract agreements, and a portion of these contract agreements have price adjustments typically occurring in three or six month intervals. In FY17, 67% of sales were delivered to the automotive end-market, while another 15% went to the infrastructure and manufacturing market. The remainder was sent to service centers and converters. (29 Nov 2018)

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Transcript: 2018 IG & Crossover Conf-Basics Panel

Transcript: 11 Dec 2018, 5:51 AM ET - We present a transcript of the Basic Industries Panel discussion given at the CreditSights Investment Grade & Crossover conference on December 4, 2018.
Focused

AK Steel 3Q18: More Questions Than Answers

Earnings Note: 28 Oct 2018, 8:26 AM ET - AKS' stock price and bonds got crushed following an earnings call that left investors with more questions than answers.

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Arconic: LBO Rumors Continue

Worth Watching: 09 Oct 2018, 3:37 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): LBO rumors continue to swirl. According to Reuters, Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex, and Canada Pension have made a joint bid to acquire ARNC. The report also noted that the PE consortium is competing with Apollo in the bidding p ..

FCX: Landmark Grasberg Deal Signing

Worth Watching: 30 Sep 2018, 10:35 PM ET - FCX (Ba2/BB) and Rio Tinto signed a binding agreement to sell their stakes in the Grasberg mine to PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (Inalum). The terms are roughly in-line with what was reported in July when the parties signed a nonbinding agreement ( ..
Focused

AKS 2Q18: Disappoints Again

Earnings Note: 31 Jul 2018, 4:00 PM ET - We take a look at AK Steel's 2Q18 results and maintain our U/P on the credit given the continued operational issues and aggressive financial policies.

Coal Producers: Exposure to Potential Retirements

Sector Analysis: 28 Jun 2018, 5:16 AM ET - As part of our continued coverage of coal producer exposure to plant retirements, we have analyzed coal plant data to determine which basins and coal producers have the greatest exposure to unplanned, but at risk, coal plant retirements.  
Focused

AKS 1Q18: Aggressive Financial Policies

Earnings Note: 30 Apr 2018, 10:16 PM ET - AKS' medium-term gross leverage target of <4.0x and its desire to expand its downstream operations to 30% of EBITDA are aggressive.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Metals: U.S. Protectionism Comes to a Head

Sector Analysis: 19 Feb 2018, 11:06 PM ET - Our thoughts on the Commerce Department's proposed Section 232 tariffs/quotas on steel and aluminum imports and the implications on various industries. 

January 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 31 Jan 2018, 10:28 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty-four company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of January.
Focused

AK Steel 4Q17: Capital Allocation Concerns

Earnings Note: 31 Jan 2018, 3:22 AM ET - We take a look at the company's 4Q17 results and discuss reasons for downgrading AKS to U/P. 

CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: EVs, Autos and Metals

Worth Watching: 29 Jan 2018, 6:04 PM ET - CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: The mega trend around vehicle electrification is set to meaningfully impact a number of sectors, changing the landscape in a disruptive fashion that will make for significant divergence between the winners and losers. Who wil ..

Metals: Electric Vehicle Revolution

Sector Analysis: 29 Jan 2018, 2:49 PM ET - We discuss the EV market and more specifically EV batteries, supply/demand profiles of the commodities that are found within an EV battery, and our coverage companies that could stand to benefit and lose from the EV revolution. 

Chemicals 2018 Outlook (Part 5): Chlor-Alkali

Sector Outlook: 25 Jan 2018, 10:35 PM ET - With investment in chlor-alkali capacity effectively non-existent and positive manufacturing and construction trends around the globe, we expect operating rates around the world to rise in the medium term. 
Focused

AK Steel: Plant Fire to Support Steel Prices

Worth Watching: 22 Jan 2018, 9:22 PM ET - AK Steel (B3/B-) reported that its Middletown Works steel making facility will be down over the next two weeks following a fire over the weekend, which could put upward pressure on steel prices. The ladle of the facility cracked and spilled molten ..

Metals 2018 Outlook: Valuations Over Fundamentals

Sector Outlook: 15 Jan 2018, 9:19 PM ET - We analyze the broad trends within the metals & mining sector, delve into sub-sector developments, and then examine name-specific recommendations.

Metals: Steel Section 232 Finally in Trump's Hands

Worth Watching: 12 Jan 2018, 12:06 PM ET - Metals: Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross has finally delivered his much-anticipated Section 232 report on the impact of steel imports on U.S. national security to President Trump on Thursday, January 11th. The Commerce Department noted th ..

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