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Aircastle: 3Q18 Results

Worth Watching: 01 Nov 2018, 10:08 PM ET - Aircastle echoed similar positive guidance about market strength as AER, but with its own idiosyncratic issues.  Core lease rents increased 6% YoY on 22% more aircraft (which hints at leasing underperformance), but total revenue fell off -10% f ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Specialty Finance: Barclays Conference Notes

Sector Analysis: 17 Sep 2018, 5:03 AM ET - We provide presentation write-ups for the slew of specialty finance companies represented at the Barclays 2018 Global Financial Services Conference this week; Ally, AmEx, CIT, Discover, iStar, and Navient.

Register Now: 2018 Global Financials Seminars

Announcement: 10 Sep 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Register for our upcoming fifth annual Global Financials Seminars.
Focused

Jet Airways: EA Partners I and Lessor Exposure

Worth Watching: 13 Aug 2018, 4:54 PM ET - Jet Airways announces a liquidity squeeze, delaying financial releases, seeking emergency funding from the State Bank of India, and allegedly looking for up to $400 million private equity funding.  EA Partners I bondholders should be nervous, ..
Focused

Aircastle: 2Q Results

Worth Watching: 08 Aug 2018, 9:41 PM ET - Aircastle (AYR: Ba1/BBB-) had another solid quarter, along with AerCap and Avolon.  Lease revenue declined slightly on fleet mix changes (sales of aircraft and lease extensions on some widebodies, apparently into a weaker market).  Eight aircr ..

Interplay Between US Banks & Fed's Balance Sheet

Sector Analysis: 08 Aug 2018, 5:36 AM ET - In this note, we discuss the impacts of the Fed's balance sheet unwind on banks. We expect that U.S. banks will become the "natural buyers" of U.S. Treasuries not bought by the Fed, offsetting the impact on rates.

US IG Chart of the Day: Issuer Entrants and Exits

Strategy Analysis: 16 Jul 2018, 9:04 AM ET - In today's chart of the day we identify issuers that have moved into or out of the ICE / BAML IG index since the beginning of the year. 

US Banks: Update to 2018 Debt Supply Forecast

Sector Analysis: 09 Jul 2018, 5:49 AM ET - Following a review of 1H18 debt supply, we are increasing our supply forecast for the full year for the banks in our coverage universe. The majority of the increase reflects increased expectations for OpCo debt from the GSIBs.

US Banks: 2018 CCAR - It's OK to Breach Limits?

Sector Analysis: 29 Jun 2018, 5:15 AM ET - The Fed released the 2018 CCAR results. It did not object to the capital plans of 34 of the 35 banks, the exception being DB USA, Deutsche Bank's IHC. The Fed did not force a number of banks that fell below the minimums to raise capital.

Specialty Finance: Conference Recap Notes

Sector Analysis: 14 Jun 2018, 5:41 AM ET - We recap recent presentations by several fincos at the Morgan Stanley Financials conference. The sense we got from card issuers (SYF, DFS) and auto lenders (ALLY) is that consumer credit performance should remain solid and stable in 2Q18.

Air Lease: 4% 5-year Offering

Worth Watching: 11 Jun 2018, 9:35 PM ET - Air Lease just printed 5-year notes at 4.0% yield, just inside AerCap's recent 4.145% offering. The aircraft leasing yield curve settles in with Aircastle just outside AER (now investment grade, smaller, no order book, but better credit metrics) ..

U.S. Consumer Credit: 1Q18 Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 24 May 2018, 4:25 AM ET - We delve into the Fed's consumer credit data, analyzing 1Q18 trends across asset classes. We also dig in to recently released data on age distributions and one thing is clear: consumer credit has gotten grayer.

US Banks: Crapo De-reg. Bill Heads to White House

Sector Analysis: 23 May 2018, 10:27 PM ET - The House approved the Senate bill on financial (de)regulation, which is now headed to the White House to be signed into law. While the bill provides regulatory relief for regional/community banks, it has minimal impact on the big-6 banks.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

U.S. Consumer Credit: 4Q17 Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 21 Feb 2018, 3:36 PM ET - Consumer credit growth decelerated a bit in 4Q17 but remained among the strongest of the cycle as balances set new all-time highs in each quarter of 2017. We delve into the Fed's consumer credit data, analyzing trends across asset classes.

Aircraft Finance: Lessor Bonds vs ABS vs EETC

IG Note: 14 Dec 2017, 10:14 PM ET - Aircraft are excellent collateral.  Bondholders can invest through aircraft lessor senior notes, ABS structures, or EETCs.  Senior notes offer the most value.

U.S. Consumer Credit: 3Q17 Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 13 Dec 2017, 11:12 PM ET - Consumer credit grew at its fastest rate since the crisis in 3Q17, and balances have now set a new record in each quarter this year. We delve into the Fed's consumer credit data and analyze trends across the various asset classes.

Specialty Finance: CCAR Reform Proposal Takeaways

Worth Watching: 16 Nov 2017, 10:40 PM ET - Specialty Finance With news of a bipartisan bill to ease regulations on banks, specifically targeted on thresholds for the stress testing process, we analyze the potential impacts on the four specialty finance banks currently subject to CCAR--ALLY ..

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